Just How Vulnerable Is Asia To The Current US Sub-Prime Crisis?

If you ask Asian banks about their exposure to US Sub-Prime debt, they would probably say that the exposure is pretty small. In fact, Asian central banks also agree with this notion. Unlike some hedge funds with nearly 100% exposure to the sector, the percentage of exposure to US Sub-Prime trough CDO's are not significant enough to dent the bank's earnings and value. Income streams of these banks are diversified enough to absorb the shocks. But that's in the ideal world, where current correlations regimes stay constant.

But we all know that during a crisis situation, correlations can change, and a seemingly isolated case can evolve into a full blown crisis that affects everything. Now we don't know if the banks are thinking about this situation or not. But risk management best practice dictates that they should.

Doomsday!?

We've been hearing about several doomsday scenarios. The most relevant one we're hearing nowadays is Climate Change. But there are also people who speak about Financial Disaster and sites like Financial Armageddon is an example. Their concerns are plausible and worth thinking about.

Tags: books capital markets finance risk management

Basel II Implementation in the Philippines

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has set June 2007 as the date of implementation of the revised capital adequacy framework. The latest version of the framework is very much in line with Basel II. Major changes that are expected to have significant impact on the ratios would be the addition of an operational risk capital charge and the revision of the risk weight for Philippine government foreign currency bonds (ROP) from 0% to 100%.

In a previous circular, securities booked under Available for Sale (AFS) are taken out of market risk charge and are now considered as Banking Book exposures. I'm not sure why this is the case because these positions clearly have exposure to fluctuation in rates and are revalued accordingly. Profit or loss are then recognized in equity. This actually prompts banks to book everything under AFS (especially Philippine Gov't Peso bonds which have 0% credit risk weight) to avoid market risk charges.

As with Basel II, the framework does not directly address market risks in the banking book and leaves these as Pillar II issues.

Read more about Basel II initiatives in the Philippines:

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP)
The Asian Banker

Tags: finance risk management capital adequacy basel ii bsp philippines

Running Government Finances Like a Bank

Many investors are concerned about the increase in public debt of Asian countries since the Asian Financial Crisis. As justification, governments need to issue debt to support the financial markets, jump start the economy, and develop infrastructure, etc. Sovereigns with large outstanding debt are seen to be more credit risky and more more susceptible to something going wrong. Thus, the IMF issued guidelines on Public Debt Management (PDM).

In a nutshell PDM takes Asset-Liability Management best practice from banks and insurance companies and applies them in managing government debt. This makes sense since the biggest financial portfolio in a country is the government's finances anyway.

Governments should focus on ALM issues like liquidity and interest rate risk management. It should analyze the cost-benefit trade off of borrowing in the short term - which is cheap but risky and volatile, as opposed to borrowing long term - which is expensive but predictable. They should also focus on minimizing unhedged foreign exchange exposures, debt with embedded put options (unpredictable maturities), and implicit contingent liabilities.

Governments should also push for the development of their domestic currency capital markets. A developed capital market would mean that there are a lot of investors and variety of issued securities. Development of derivatives markets will also be beneficial as investors are more willing to take and hedge risks. A developed capital market will also allow the government to issue longer-dated debt since there are willing investors.

Having a large public debt portfolio is not such as bad thing as it can be a catalyst for economic growth. The key here is proper risk management. All they (governments) have to do is to look at what the banks and other financial institutions are doing.

Sources:

International Monetary Fund
Financial Engineering News

Tags: finance derivatives risk management alm government debt bonds capital markets

Do you use Bloomberg for Risk Measurement?

Bloomberg is holding a Market Risk Seminar this month. But before the details, here are my comments.

I've attended Bloomberg seminars before and there is usually a sales pitch somewhere. Looking at the event's lineup of speakers, 4 out of 5 speakers are from Bloomberg (an Algo risk solution is embedded in Bloomberg). Although the topics may sound relevant, they're just intro material to Bloomberg functionalities and add-on services. For those looking for risk management solutions for their organization and looking to comply with Basel II, Bloomberg will present itself as a viable option in this seminar. Bloomberg would more likely say: "Since you are already Bloomberg users, why not leverage on your subscription and use our built-in risk solutions (at an added cost of course)?"

Generally, practitioners I know would trust Bloomberg in a majority of the raw figures that they give out. But when it comes to calculations, some would take them with a grain of salt. Personally, I find the risk solutions of Bloomberg to be less than adequate for the following reasons:

• Limited instrument coverage
• Not flexible
• Lack of transparency (Black Box)

But of course, it would never hurt to sit in a Bloomberg seminar and learn best practice (if ever they are presented) and to discover some new things that our beloved system has to offer.

And now for the seminar details.

Topics:

• Importance of Market Risk Management
• Risk measures for fixed income securities and derivatives
• Reliable data for your risk management systems
• Market risk management in alignment with Basel Accord
• Algo Risk on Bloomberg - a pre-integrated, real time market risk solution

Speakers:

• Nestor A. Espenilla, Jr. - Deputy Governor, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
• Seet Kok Leong - Head of Algo Risk (Asia Pacific), Algorithmics
• Jiten Bhanap - Product Specialist, Bloomberg L.P.
• Ivan Koh - Regional Data Solutions Manager, Bloomberg L.P.
• Neo Siang Noi - Trading Systems Sales Specialist, Bloomberg L.P.

Date:

15 August 2006

Venue:

Makati Shangri-la Manila, Ayala Avenue corner Makati Avenue, Makati City 1200, Philippines

Time:

9:30am - 2:00 pm

Registration:

BU on Bloomberg

email: awang@bloomberg.net

tel: +63 2 849 7100 loc. 4794

*Lunch will be served

Tags: finance derivatives market risk risk management bloomberg seminars courses

Modelling Financial Risk Seminar

Just got an invitation through email to participate in a class offered by Macquire University's Advanced Finance Centre and PRMIA. It is a course designed for Risk Management Professionals. It involves lectures by Dr. Elizabeth Sheedy and some computer workshops after each topic.

Topics for Discussion

• Introduction
• Measuring Risk Under the Normal Distribution
• Historical Simulations for Measuring Risk
• Monte Carlo Simulations for Measuring Risk
• Stress Testing
• VaR in the Absence of Normality
• Liquidity Risk
• Model Risk
• Maximum Likelihood Estimation

Course Schedule

• Thursday 17 August 2006 - 5:30pm to 8:30pm
• Friday 18 August 2006 - 5:30pm to 8:30pm
• Saturday 19 August 2006 - 9:00am to 5:00pm
• Sunday 20 August 2006 - 9:00am to 5:00pm

Fees

• SGD 1785 (includes GST) - per person
• SGD 1575 (includes GST) - per person from the same entity

Venue

School of Financial Services and Risk Management, Singapore Human Resources Institute, Singapore Conference Hall, 7 Shenton Way #01-02 Singapore 068810

Contacts

• 65 6438 0012
• shortcourses@mafc.mq.edu.au

An outline is available at this link.

I'm quite knowledgeable in risk measurement so the initial topics are just the same old stuff. The latter topics though are quite interesting. Too bad I'm not in Singapore.

Tags: finance risk risk management seminars courses